Under what conditions do emerging and established great powers come into conflict with each other? And when do they remain at peace? In light of a rising China and India, an increasingly aggressive Russia, and widespread uncertainty in Europe and the United States, these questions are currently particularly relevant. Traditional approaches to International Relations focus on military power differentials and the degree of economic interdependence. In doing so, they neglect the fact that rulers’ behavior can be strongly influenced by their beliefs, identities, and emotions. This project assumes that these cognitive, cultural, and affective phenomena may shape relations between great powers in crucial ways. Drawing on research from psychology, it develops a cognitive-affective theory of rivalry to analyze decision-making processes of rulers in a series of historical case studies.

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