The trial and imprisonment of former Prime Minister Yuliia Tymoshenko have been a cause célèbre. But the problems in Ukraine go much deeper - ever since Tymoshenko was defeated in an ironically free and fair election in February 2010, and arguably before. However, her nemesis, new President Viktor Yanukovych, is trying to build an authoritarian state in the style of Putin‘s Russia at the very moment when the Russian system is under unprecedented challenge at home. Also, Ukraine is not Russia. It does not have Russia‘s energy wealth or international importance. Will Yanukovych succeed in his project, despite domestic constraints and international pressure? Or will parliamentary elections due in October 2012 show that it is already beginning to fail?
Andrew Wilson is a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and Reader in Ukrainian Studies at University College London. He has worked extensively on the comparative politics of the post-Soviet states since 1990. His latest book Belarus: The Last European Dictatorship was published by Yale University Press in October 2011. His other recent books include The Ukrainians: Unexpected Nation (Yale UP, third edition, 2009), Ukraine’s Orange Revolution (Yale UP, 2005) and Virtual Politics: Faking Democracy in the Post-Soviet World (Yale UP, 2005). His publications at ECFR include Dealing with Yanukovych’s Ukraine, The Limits of Enlargement-lite: EU and Russian Power in the Troubled Neighbourhood, Meeting Medvedev: The Politics of the Putin Succession and Can the EU Win the Peace in Georgia?
Moderation: Professor Dr. Alexander Wöll